So they would need to swallow up even more of our chip fab production and push ram and SSD prices even further through the roof for checks notes ah yes… the same functionality as they have on earth.

AI is already unprofitable because of the insane hardware requirements and the fact that no company has a “moat” so there is a race to the bottom pricing-wise… I can’t imagine anyone also then accounting for building space-hardened kit and getting it into space and dealing with shortened lifespan of the kit is ever gonna see a return.

All this just so that a chatbot can confidently tell people the wrong stuff

Exactly. To your point, AI output is probabilistically the average opinion of everyone on the internet so it shares the common biases of the general public. Even with a bit of RLHF to “balance out” the models. Also it probably doesn’t help to anthropomorphise them. They don’t have opinions, they just autocomplete based on prior input

It seems pretty clear after a few years of people getting AI psychosis that LLMs are an addictive psychological hazard

Love to see it

They’re still evil. It’s more like evil and stupid to evil and incompetent

Social permission = shareholder permission

He’s saying “we need an ROI on all the cash we are burning before they sell up and the board kick me out for being a delusional and incompetent buffoon”

Get in the sea Nadella

I’d love to know more about that 30% reported increase and how real it is (I know this is never going to happen). Is it a) Nvidia<=>OpenAI b2b stuff where they increased revenue by grifting some other CEO b) massaging the numbers to make it look like AI is popular - Microsoft Office+Copilot style or c) there is genuinely something valuable that people are buying

I feel like there is a whole lot of b) going on with companies baking AI into popular products and then going “ooh line gonup, must be AI” but I could be wrong.

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something that happened two years ago

Looks like this change happened between Jan 19 and Jan 20 2025 - less than a year ago.

Stop panicking, people. It’s silly.

I don’t think anyone is panicking. If anything I reckon most people find it hilarious 😂 microslop are desperate to make some money with their LLMs and it’s funny that noone is interested.

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Just to point out that per the discussion in the screenshot: Synthetic datasets are typically generated from models that were trained by poverty-pay Kenyans. This is basically ethics-washing.

Well Anthropic chose to settle their piracy lawsuit out of court which probably indicates that they thought there was a reasonable chance they could have lost the case. No legally binding precedents set yet though afaik.

Yeah I agree. Small models is the way. You can also use LoRa/QLoRa adapters to “fine tune” the same big model for specific tasks and swap the use case in realtime. This is what apple do with apple intelligence. You can outperform a big general LLM with an SLM if you have a nice specific use case and some data (which you can synthesise in come cases)

Unlike the dotcom bubble, Another big aspect of it is the unit cost to run the models.

Traditional web applications scale really well. The incremental cost of adding a new user to your app is basically nothing. Fractions of a cent. With LLMs, scaling is linear. Each machine can only handle a few hundred users and they’re expensive to run:

Big beefy GPUs are required for inference as well as training and they require a large amount of VRAM. Your typical home gaming GPU might have 16gb vram, 32 if you go high end and spend $2500 on it (just the GPU, not the whole pc). Frontier models need like 128gb VRAM to run and GPUs manufactured for data centre use cost a lot more. A state of the art Nvidia h200 costs $32k. The servers that can host one of these big frontier models cost, at best, $20 an hour to run and can only handle a handful of user requests so you need to scale linearly as your subscriber count increases. If you’re charging $20 a month for access to your model, you are burning a user’s monthly subscription every hour for each of these monster servers you have turned on. That’s generous and assumes they’re not paying the “on-demand” price of $60/hr.

Sam Altman famously said OpenAI are losing money on their $200/mo subscriptions.

If/when there is a market correction, a huge factor of the amount of continued interest (like with the internet after dotcom) is whether the quality of output from these models reflects the true, unsubsidized price of running them. I do think local models powered by things like llamacpp and ollama and which can run on high end gaming rigs and macbooks might be a possible direction for these models. Currently though you can’t get the same quality as state-of-the-art models from these small, local LLMs.

Relative privation is when someone dismisses or minimizes a problem simply because worse problems exist: “You can’t complain about X when Y exists.”

I’m talking about the practical reality that you must prioritize among legitimate problems. If you’re marooned at sea in a sinking ship you need to repair the hull before you try to fix the engines in order to get home.

It’s perfectly valid to say “I can’t focus on everything so I will focus on the things that provide the biggest and most tangible improvement to my situation first”. It’s fallacious to say “Because worse things exist, AGI concerns doesn’t matter.”

Here’s how I see it: we live in an attention economy where every initiative with a slew of celebrities attached to it is competing for eyeballs and buy in. It adds to information fatigue and analysis paralysis . In a very real sense if we are debating AGI we are not debating the other stuff. There are only so many hours in a day.

If you take the position that AGI is basically not possible or at least many decades away (I have a background in NLP/AI/LLMs and I take this view - not that it’s relevant in the broader context of my comment) then it makes sense to tell people to focus on solving more pressing issues e.g. nascent fascism, climate collapse, late stage capitalism etc.

Presumably it’s selling snake oil and convincing people to trust them?

In the United Kingdom yes because of our authoritarian Online Safety Act that came into power earlier this year. If I join a discord channel marked as nsfw I get a prompt for id which I bypass with a VPN in another country.

Same take my friend. I agree - Tim’s personal politics are kinda irrelevant in this context. Best for apple=compliance with whoever is in charge so they get to keep their money printer. Corpos gonna corpo

You’re giving apple too much credit. Tim Apple literally gifted trump a golden statue. The press are reporting that this is directly in response to a request from the DOJ. This isn’t apple having a moral epiphany and thinking they’re doing ice targets a favour. Corporations don’t do that sort of thing unless it will make them $$$

My Gmail account is old enough to buy drinks in a bar in the US (21)