Well, that’s not entirely correct. Given a long enough run, attenuation will absolutely cause bad cables to perform poorly. Like your not getting a 10 meter run on bananas. That said, for any modern cable, that run has to be greater than 50 meters for it to even start mattering. So if your wiring up a warehouse, you probably need to care about the type of wire your using.

Probably. It’s hard to say since so much is behind the veil. In fact it’s likely China has its own DUV lithography supply. US estimates on what China can produced based on number of asml units sold is wildly wrong.

I don’t think you realize it, but your proving my point. I never said no Huawei chips would be sold. I said China wants to reach criticality with it’s users. With Huawei chips being more expensive and less capable, the big boys won’t buy Huawei. And the secondary market doesn’t matter to the big boys who will get it at MSRP because orders always go to them first. Since they have the most users and will have the most exposure for stress testing.

The last thing China wants is for Huawei to only sell to smaller companies and start ups where it’s entirely possible there will be no users and money wasted. That’s why the new law only targets the major companies.

*Edit on that point I’m going to predict the future now. In a few months we’re going to see an article saying China has bought record amounts of H20s and NVIDIA’s stocks are going to go up again. This is because the smaller companies are still going to be buying and at MSRP because the big boys can’t.

The problem is the Chinese chips are not cheaper. Huawei’s 910c is about 30% slower and 1/3 more expensive. Add on top of that a lack of software, without government force, who would buy it?

You’re right about that, BUT I’d argue that’s all small potatoes. If no one develops on Chinese chips, then they’ll never actually be competitive. The only way for China to push ahead in any capacity, or even to catch up is to have thousands of users on their chipsets.

Let’s look at the MooreThreads MTT80. When it started it was performing like a 2017 GPU GT1030. They did 0 hardware upgrades. I will repeat that 0 hardware upgrades. But today, it’s able to run the domestic game Black Myth WuKong at 4k at 40 fps. Yes I realize that means it stutters, but with no hardware changes they were able to make a fairly demanding modern game playable. What this has rang through out China I am sure is, China has to do everything on earth to fix their software. If that means banning NVIDIA, so be it.

Exactly right! This why China is banning the chips. They caught up in hardware and now need to catch up in software. If they continue to allow people to use NVIDIA chips, then their software will never progress as they won’t have users to optimize them.

Your right. It could be both. I mean, my wife said to me the other day that she heard Trump was doing the tariffs to lower the bond interest rates. I said while in some types of recessions that’s true, that wouldn’t work in this case and you’d have to be an idiot to think it would. Sure enough the next day Trump puts a stay on tariffs to most of the world because the bond market got rocked. All I could think of is omg, are they really that fucking stupid?

I wish it was that. No, this is actual evil, not incompetence. Trump has turned the US economy into the largest pump and dump scheme ever. Worse, he’s bragging about how his friends made billions. I can’t even believe this is happening. I’m in utter shock. I knew Trump would be bad, but straight up flaunting corruption like it’s a joke and even bringing the SCOTUS on board with this. I’m just gob smacked.

You don’t understand. Chinese companies have been preparing for this for almost a decade now thanks to US policies. Here’s manufacturing locations just for Moto.

https://motosmartphones.com/where-are-motorola-phones-made/

How much is it really made in Brazil? Enough to by pass the tariffs.

This is transhipment. China has been building an enormous transhipment network with those countries heavily dependent on Chinese heavy machinery and services. They expected this, they prepared for this. It’s the US companies that tried to obey their own countries rules that are susceptible. Even Samsung has been working with China to create these networks. Soon, I would estimate, Apple will as well. The problem is, if you thought Tik Tok was a national security issue, forcing every US company to use Chinese logistics to fight your own countries tariffs…

Oh god how stupid. China has built an entire transhipment network. China was never going to pay those tariffs anyway. Instead, US companies that desperately tried to follow the rules are still stuck shipping from China. So what happens next? US companies will now have to beg China access to these networks. You thought Tik Tok was a national security issue? When all your goods and services imports are controlled by China…

Worse the canceling of the deminis clause was only against China and HK. But both those companies have transhipment logistics networks across the globe. We are about to see millions of packages a month from dozens if not a hundred different countries. They’re asking for China to unleash what it’s spent the past 5 years building up.

The Trump government doesn’t understand. US previous actions created this. Perhaps if they did this immediately, China couldn’t respond. But China has been courting the global south for decades to set up a resilient logistics network for literally this reason. If you ever wondered what BRI is about, well your about to find out.