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Cake day: August 30th, 2025

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  • I wonder if AI would ever be not shit, if that could actually be an interesting thing. Like at the end of the day you sit down with a cup of tea and a biscuit and put on a podcast. But instead of it being about some random topic, it’s about the meetings you had today.

    They discuss what you were wearing and how tired you looked. How you obviously cleaned up a bit in view of the camera, but didn’t guess the angle right so some mess was still visible. They spend about 30 minutes on how you had prepared a talking point, made your arguments and had everyone on board, until Steve made a simple remark that destroyed your standpoint and had everyone laughing at you. They speculate a bit about your childhood and how today will impact the future. The upcoming review gets mentioned, but the host stamps down on that, as that’s a topic for a future episode and it’ll be an extra long episode with special guests. Somehow there’s a sponsor spot for anti-depressants? Not sure what that’s all about.

    Alas we’ll never have that whimsical flavor of distopia, just the regular shit flavored one.


  • No such thing as a free lunch tho. It’s like saying solar energy on Earth is free, it’s obviously not. Sure, once the panels are produced and installed, the running costs are minimal. But that doesn’t mean that energy is now suddenly free. When I did the calculation on my solar installation, I took the costs of buying the panels, installing them, maintaining them and in the end tearing them down and properly recycling them. Then we calculated the estimated total energy produced during the lifetime of the system and thus arrived at a cost per unit of energy. Then we can compare that to what the cost would be as compared to other energy sources. At the time it didn’t make financial sense, as over the lifetime other energy sources (which might have been solar as well, just out of large scale installations) would be cheaper. But some government subsidies, plus a feeling the cost of energy in the future is unsure and wanting to contribute to sustainable energy production made me pay for them anyways.

    It’s the exact same with launching a datacenter into space. Once it’s up there the energy might not cost anything and running costs per satellite might be relatively low (although there still are running costs for sure, often just spread out over the entire constellation), but that doesn’t mean the thing is free. Investers would want to see a return. So that means a lot of the costs are upfront, developing the system, paying the launch provider, getting the right licenses, etc, etc. Then during the lifetime of the system, it needs to sell the compute in order to make a profit. When directly competing with newer ground based systems that run cutting edge technology, it doesn’t really matter where or how the compute is done. It’s simply a unit of work being sold at market rate. Newer technology will push the price per unit down, as the new tech is more efficient. And it might make your compute less attractive as it’s lacking in newer capabilities, so it can only be sold at a lower price.

    So even if the system would be designed for a lifespan of 10 years and put into an orbit that can last 10 years, the compute would be very hard to be sold for any reasonable price after 5 years. And as mentioned, operating a satellite is far from free, there are many running costs associated.


  • Plus when you build a datacenter on Earth you can use it for decades. You can swap out small parts (like the servers and networking hardware), which keeps it useful. Cooling and power setups are often good for a very long time and those can also be upgraded if needed. The building itself and all of the supporting infrastructure is good for at least 50 years. And a lot of the building is dedicated to easy access for humans to do stuff like maintenance. This is a design requirement for any datacenter.

    When shooting shit into space, that’s it, you can’t access it for upgrades or maintenance. And we’ve seen these past years cutting edge AI hardware is good for maybe 3 years at best. After that it’s basically worthless, maybe useful for some niche uses, but mostly useless and definitely not profitable. Not that this matters much, as to keep latency down the orbits would be so low they deorbit within 3-5 years anyways, like with the current Starlink constellation.

    But this is of course very useful for a cheap launch provider, as it keeps them yeeting shit into space non-stop. And what a surprise, Elon Musk is one of the people pushing this concept hard. No alternate motives there for sure.





  • I totally get it. I’ve been critical about using AI for code purposes at work and have pleaded to stop using it (management is forcing it, less experienced folk want it). So I’ve been given a challenge by one of the proponents to use a very specific tool. This one should be one of the best AI slop generators out there.

    So I spent a lot of time thoroughly writing specs for a task in a way the tool should be able to do it. It failed miserably, didn’t even produce any usable result. So I asked the dude that challenged me to help me refine the specs, tweak the tool, make everything perfect. The thing still failed hard. It was said it was because I was forcing the tool into decisions it couldn’t handle and to give it more freedom. So we did that, it made up the rules themselves and subsequently didn’t follow those rules. Another failure. So we split up the task into smaller pieces, it still couldn’t handle it. So we split it up even further, to a ridiculous level, at which point it would definitely be faster just to create the code manually. It’s also no longer realistic, as we pretty much have the end result all worked out and are just coaching the tool to get there. And even then it’s making mistakes, having to be corrected all the time, not following specs, not following code guidelines or best practices. Another really annoying thing is it keeps on changing code it shouldn’t touch, since we’ve made the steps so small, it keeps messing up work it did previously. And the comments it creates are crazy, either just about every line has a comment attached and functions get a whole story, or it has zero comments. As soon as you say to limit the comments to where they are useful, it just deletes all the comments, even the ones it put in before or we put in manually.

    I’m ready to give up on the thing and have the use of AI tools for coding limited if not outright stopped entirely. But I’ll know how that discussion will go: Oh you used tool A? No, you should be using tool B, it’s much better. Maybe the tools aren’t there now, but they are getting better all the time, so we’ll benefit any day now.

    When I hear even experienced devs be enthusiastic about AI tools, I really feel like I’m going crazy. They suck a lot and aren’t useful at all (on top of the thousand other issues with AI), why are people liking it? And why have we hedged the entire economy on it?